SALEM - Salem--The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) has issued an updated Oregon Youth Authority Demand Forecast which projects little change over the coming decade in the demand for the agency's services.

The forecast estimates the need for 914 close-custody beds by 2021, which exceeds the current operating capacity by 35 beds.

Referrals to county juvenile departments, which are analogous to arrests in the adult system, are used as a measure of juvenile crime in Oregon. The number of referrals for felony offenses peaked in 1997, then declined each year thereafter, with the tally for 2011 coming in at about one-third of the 1997 peak level (annual reductions averaging 7%). Class C felonies account for much of the reduction, while referral counts for the more serious class A and B felonies declined to a lesser degree.

The forecast includes projections for three groups of juveniles held in close-custody beds (locked facilities operated by the Oregon Youth Authority).

Release of the forecast occurs on April 15 and October 15 of every year. The forecast helps state policy makers plan and budget for the juvenile corrections population.

The forecast is available at: